ABILENE, Texas (KTAB/KRBC) – It is officially spooky season as we enter the month of October. On a not-so-spooky note, the weather pattern this week will bring perfect fall weather for the second half of the week.
We had a small taste of what fall will feel like a few weeks ago in early September, with a couple of days with highs in the 70s. Then, Mother Nature proceeded to turn the oven back on for the rest of September. However, this time it seems that Mother Nature is done playing around.
We are in the process of a very slow cooling temperature trend. The cold front we are waiting for is located a state over to the west in New Mexico. The front will begin impacting far West Texas Monday night as that front continues to push eastward. We will have to wait a couple more days.
Come Tuesday, it will be a similar day with highs around 90 degrees and a little more cloud cover around the area. The only difference is there will be a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon and evening as the cold front moves closer to the area.
Here is the Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook:
The higher chance for storms is expected to remain off to the west with a slight risk, but our far western counties could see some of those stronger storms roll into the area.
Wednesday will be the most active day of the week. As of Monday, the threat for severe weather is lower on Wednesday with only a marginal risk of severe storms.
During this time of year, storms tend to set up like springtime severe storms due to strong heating ahead of the frontal boundary providing the potential for storms to develop, plus a strong cold front providing more energy for storms to develop.
The severe risk could increase as more information comes out regarding the position, location, and timing of the front expected to move in late Wednesday.
What is already clear on Wednesday is the possibility of heavy rainfall across the Big Country. There is already a slight risk for excessive rainfall which could result in localized flash flooding.
Here is the Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Wednesday:
The slight risk covers a large portion of West-Central Texas from Ozona to Junction, all of the Big Country through the DFW area into Northeast Texas and the eastern half of Oklahoma.
Rainfall amounts could range from a 1/4 to 1/2-inch during the day Wednesday and could get up to over an inch in some areas Wednesday night. This much rain in a short time span here is the reason for flooding concerns.
Thursday could be the most fall-like day we have all year. Temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 70s behind the front. Rain chances will hang around some parts of the Big Country. To end the day, the overnight low will be chilling in the low 60s.
Friday should be an ideal fall day as skies will begin to clear up with only a 20% chance of showers. Highs will be in the upper 70s and will cool down after sunset. You might want a jacket handy for Friday Night Lights as winds will be breezy out of the north.