TAYLOR COUNTY, Texas (KTAB/KRBC) – The word around town is when the West Texas Fair & Rodeo comes to town it’s a good chance that rain is coming along with it. It’s time to see if that is indeed a fact or just a bizarre coincidence.

Fair activities are officially set to begin Thursday with a Sneak-a-Peek night. The fair normally begins the first full week of September. After researching through climate data over the past 15 years, there was some information that was quite interesting.

Since 2008, the first few days of September have been relatively dry. Anywhere between 0.01 inch to about a tenth of an inch (0.10) of rainfall accumulated for the first five days.

As soon as September 6 hits, the rainfall totals begin to rise and become more consistent. The odd thing is the rainfall totals drop right around the time the West Texas Fair and Rodeo leaves town. That is usually around September 17 and 18.

Below is a chart of the Mean Precipitation by Day for Abilene, Texas over the past 15 years:

If you take a look at the month of September, it seems that we get the bulk of our rainfall total for the month during the second week of September. On average, from the 6th through the 15th, we receive about 1.25 inches during the 10-day span.

The average rainfall for the entire month is about 3.21 inches. That means we get around 40% of our total rainfall for the month during the time where, of course, the West Texas Fair & Rodeo is in town.

Oddly enough, the few days after the fair ends tend to be drier as the rainfall amounts decrease. What makes things more interesting is that we are trending wetter than normal on the 6–10-day outlook.

This year we are expecting the trend to continue as the Big Country is in the bullseye for above normal precipitation. It seems like this tale of the West Texas Fair & Rodeo is true.

The fair will be here from Thursday, September 7 through Saturday, the 16th, which just happens to be when this outlook ends. So, get your rain boots, jacket, and umbrella ready. It will be another wet one out there, and you don’t want soggy funnel cakes and elote!