A potent upper-level low pressure system is expected to move across Texas tomorrow, and with it, a cold front and dry-line will develop and push through the Big Country.
The current thought process for tomorrow’s possible severe event is that most of the convective activity will be concentrated along and ahead of the dry line that sets up. Most models are placing the timing of the dry line to move through the Big Country around midday/lunchtime and expect it to set up/stall out in the eastern Big Country. Shower and storm activity will kick off the in afternoon and early evening hours.
The majority of the eastern half of the Big Country is currently under at least a marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather, with the outlying parts of those eastern counties under a slight (2/5) and enhanced (3/5) risk for seeing some severe weather. I think the chance of us seeing significantly severe storms (hail larger than 1.5″ and winds stronger than 60 mph) is fairly low, as the storms will take time to build, and likely strengthen soon after they leave or are exiting the Big Country and move into more favorable conditions.
Final Thoughts: Today, models indicated the dry-line would set up and shift west a little bit compared to yesterday, which has expanded those higher risk areas a little further into the Big Country. Tomorrow is certainly a day to be weather aware for our eastern counties, but our window/timeframe of seeing those severe storms will be very limited once the initial convection moves out of the area. Timing will be primarily during the evening hours, with a few showers/storms possible in the late afternoon. Stay tuned for more updates!