Wednesday Morning Update by Meteorologist Grant Tosterud
Showers and thunderstorms continue to move from west to east across the Big Country this morning. Watch for areas of flash flooding on your morning commute with heavy rainfall across the area overnight. More than 2″ of rain has fallen in some areas including around Abilene. Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to be possible as we head through this morning. These storms will be capable of hail up to quarter size (1″), 60 mph wind gusts, dangerous lightning and very heavy rainfall. An additional 1″ to 2″ of rain may be possible with these morning storms.
The line of storms will continue to move west to east across the Big Country, exiting the central Big Country by mid morning and eventually pushing out of our region by noon. Sunny skies will move in behind the storms and high temperatures in the mid 80s.
Cooler weather moves in after today with a cold front tonight. Rain chances take a break through Friday, but return for Saturday and to start next week.
Today: 90% chance for rain and thunderstorms before 10:00 a.m. Storng to severe storms possible. Sunny skies in the afternoon. Southwest winds around 10 to 20 mph. 25 mph wind gusts.
Tonight: Cold front. Clear skies. South winds becoming northerly around 5 to 15 mph. Lows in the mid 50s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. North winds around 10 to 20 mph. 25 mph wind gusts. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs around 70°.
Friday: Partly sunny. Northeast winds around 10 to 20 mph. 25 mph wind gusts. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 60s.
Saturday: 30% chance for showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid 60s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Lows in the low 50s. Highs in the mid 70s.
Monday: 20% chance for showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the upper 70s.
Tuesday: 20% chance for showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy. Lows in the low 60s. Highs in the upper 70s.
Average High: 83°
Average Low: 59°
Sunrise: 6:46 a.m.
Sunset: 8:25 p.m.
– Meteorologist Grant Tosterud
Tuesday Morning Update by Meteorologist Grant Tosterud
There is an Enhanced Risk for severe weather across the western half of the Big Country late today into early Wednesday morning. Temperatures across the Big Country will warm into the mid 80s this afternoon under partly to mostly sunny skies and a breezy southerly wind. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop this evening, but the main threat for severe weather will come after midnight into early Wednesday morning.
Scattered strong to severe storms will be likely shortly after midnight as storms organize into a line that will move west to east across the Big Country into the morning hours on Wednesday. Current forecast models suggest storms will move into the Abilene area around 6:00 a.m. Due to the timing of this severe weather threat, make sure you have a way to receive weather information while you are sleeping.
This line of storms will likely include strong to severe thunderstorms that will be capable of large hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall and even isolated tornadoes.
– Hail greater than 2″ in diameter (larger than limes)
– Wind gusts up to 70 mph
– Isolated tornadoes
– Localized amounts of 1″+ of rain
There may be sporadic reports of significal hail or wind damage possible with this line of storms especially for areas closer to the Moderate Risk in the northwestern Big Country. Wind driven hail will also be possible across the Big Country.
By the mid morning hours on Wednesday, the line of strong to severe storms will be starting to exit the eastern Big Country. Strong to severe storms will still be possible after 7:00 a.m. Wednesday with the eastern half of the Big Country still under a Slight Risk for severe weather. Storms will exit the region though by noon leaving quieter weather for Wednesday afternoon.
– Meteorologist Grant Tosterud
Monday Evening Update by Meteorologist Dylan Smith
We have issued a Severe Weather Alert day for the Big Country for both Tuesday and Wednesday.
The biggest threat of severe weather will primarily be Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning as a line of storms makes its way through the Big Country. Strong, damaging winds and large will be the main threat, with the possibility of an isolated tornado included.
If we see storms pop up Tuesday afternoon/evening they will likely be supercellular, which generally have a higher chance of creating tornadoes as compared to more linear storm systems. Our overnight storm system will generally be a more linear squall-line type of structure.
The SPC has placed some of our western counties under an enhanced risk (3/5) for severe weather for Tuesday, with a slight risk (2/5) extending through the central portions of the Big Country and a marginal risk (1/5) extending through the southeastern areas of the Big Country and Heartland.
Moving ahead into the first half of Wednesday primarily, some of our eastern counties have been placed under an enhanced risk (3/5) for Wednesday, in anticipation of the storms retaining strength overnight as they move through the Big Country. The slight risk (2/5) again extends into the central/eastern portions of the Big Country through the day on Tuesday.
Our rain and storm chances will fade once this line moves through the Big Country by the early afternoon hours Wednesday at the latest.
Our primary threat again is:
-Damaging, strong winds
We’ll be here throughout the entire event as it unfolds, keeping you up-to-date with the latest information. Stay tuned!