ABILENE, Texas (KTAB/KRBC) – Last week’s rainy and cooler weather was definitely a blessing for most of the Big Country. Unfortunately, that will go down as an appetizer for the fall season as Monday marks the start of a warming trend.

Models predict a broad area of high pressure to build in from the west and southwesterly low-level wind flow, which will allow temperatures warm up into the mid to upper 90s by Tuesday.

Below is the latest National Forecast Chart:

As you look at the Lone Star State, you can see the blue “H” located in the heart of the state. That represents the high-pressure region, which is why we have sunny skies and warmer temperatures today.

To the west, the outlined area of green dashes represents rain and storm chances. That is forecasted to shift into the southern Great Plains on Tuesday, potentially affecting some of the Big Country.

Fortunately, the best chance for severe weather seems to be more northeast into Oklahoma, but we can still see some action here.

Here is a look at the Day 2 National Forecast Chart:

Here you can see where all the action is forecasted to take place. That extended frontal system located in East Texas into the Great Plains won’t move much between Monday and Tuesday, allowing the air in that region to be unstable.

The brown dashed line extending south from the low in South Dakota is a trough axis, which is an elongated area of relatively low pressure. That, along with a dry line, will be enough forcing for storms to begin to develop ahead of that trough and along that frontal system.

That’s why we have a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms here in the Big Country Tuesday. Here’s a closer look at our risks here and the areas most likely to have severe storms on the Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook:

There is a slight risk for severe storms for our northern and eastern counties Tuesday afternoon into the evening. Half of Knox County, parts of Haskell County into Throckmorton, northwestern Shackelford, Stephens, and a portion of Eastland counties are all under a slight risk.

The rest of the Big Country is currently under a marginal risk with a chance of isolated strong to severe storms. The main hazards will be large hail up to half dollar size and damaging winds in excess of 60 miles per hour.

There is a marginal flood risk with any of the stronger storms while the tornado potential is slim but not zero. BCH meteorologists will continue to inform you on any changes to the storm potential for tomorrow.