As high pressure aloft resides over south Texas, our forecast area will be put in a week south southwest flow aloft. In this flow, upper level divergence will create favorable conditions for convection to be initiated this afternoon and evening. The operational GFS and NAM model forecast upper level shortwaves entering the area during the afternoon and evening. With these upper level dynamics in place any convection that does occur will be enhanced. The air mass that will reside over the area will be very moist and unstable. With a slow synoptic flow driving any activity that forms, rain and thunderstorms will move slowly west to east across our forecast area. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. Areas of local flooding will be possible. Localized strong wind gusts along with deadly lighting will also be possible. Activity will come to an end sometime during the early morning hours on Tuesday.
Dangerous heat will return to the Big Country Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure will dominate the area as 850 hpa ridging coincides on Tuesday and Wednesday. This will cause temperatures to rise into the low 100’s. It will be a bit humid, so heat indexes in the middle 100’s can be expected. Practice heat safety. If you have to be outside, frequent breaks in air conditioned buildings should be taken. If possible reschedule any outside activities to the early morning or late evening. Wear light weight, light colored, and loose fitting clothing.
A cold front will push through our area Wednesday night into Thursday morning moving northwest to the southeast . This will give us a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms during this time frame. It will also cause temperatures to cool down into the middle 90’s for the end of the week.
As upper level ridging persists through the weekend, it should be dry and sunny.
Today: *MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS* *ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING* Partly sunny. 30% Showers and thunderstorms. Humid. High Temperature: 94° Winds: S 10-15 G20 MPH
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Low Temperature: 74° Winds: SSE 5-15 MPH
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Hot. Humid. High Temperature: 101° Winds: S 10-15 G20 MPH
Wednesday: Partly sunny. 20% PM Showers and thunderstorms. Cold front late pm. Hot. High Temperature: 100° Winds: SE 5-10 MPH
Thursday: Partly sunny. 20% AM Showers and thunderstorms. Cold front early am. High Temperature: 95° Winds: E 5-10 MPH
Friday: Sunny. High Temperature: 96° Winds: ENE 5-10 MPH
Saturday: Sunny. High Temperature: 97° Winds: ESE 5-10 MPH
Sunday: Sunny. High Temperature: 95° Winds: E 5-10 MPH
Average High Temperature: 94°
Average Low Temperature: 72°
Sunrise: 6:38 A.M.
Sunset: 8:49 P.M.
Meteorologist Zach Gilday