Monday will be warm and humid with chances for rain and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A capping inversion will exist over the area this morning through the early afternoon. As thermal heating occurs, the cap will break in areas during the middle of the afternoon. Forecast HRRR surface based Cape values will be in the 4000 j*kg^-1 to 5500 j*kg^-1 range along with sufficient wind shear will support large hail and damaging winds. There will be a lot of moisture in the air as NAM surface to 400 Hpa precipitable water values will be upwards of 2″. This will support heavy downpours which may lead to localized flooding. Thunderstorm activity will occur in isolated areas along leftover outflow boundaries from yesterday evening’s thunderstorms. Further, lack of upper air support will also decrease the impact of these thunderstorms. However scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon through the evening time frame.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will exist on Tuesday as upper level ridging sets in. Forecast upper level shortwaves are forecast to pass over the ridge axis possible causing isolated showers and thunderstorms.
As steep upper ridging settles in, the rest of the forecast period looks to be dry and a little warm. A steady south wind will keep the humidity elevated.
Today: *SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS* SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE* late this afternoon continuing through the evening. Main hazards: Large hail, damaging winds, heavy downpours, and deadly lighting. Partly sunny. 40% PM Showers and thunderstorms. High Temperature: 88° Winds: SE 5-15 MPH
Tonight: *SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS* SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE* mainly before midnight. Main hazards: Large hail, damaging winds, heavy downpours, and deadly lighting. Mostly cloudy. 20% Showers and thunderstorms. Low Temperature: 70° Winds: S 10-15 MPH
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. 20% Showers and thunderstorms. High Temperature: 92° Winds: SSE 5-15 MPH
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High Temperature: 93° Winds: S 10-15 MPH
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High Temperature: 94° Winds: S 5-10 MPH
Friday: Sunny. High Temperature: 95° Winds: S 5-10 MPH
Saturday: Sunny. High Temperature: 94° Winds: S 5-10 MPH
Sunday: Mostly sunny. High Temperature: 94° Winds: SSW 5-10 MPH
Average High Temperature: 92°
Average Low Temperature: 70°
Sunrise: 6:33 A.M.
Sunset: 8:49 P.M.
Meteorologist Zach Gilday