ABILENE, Texas (KTAB/KRBC) – Monday marked the first official day of spring, but it’s not feeling so spring-like in Abilene. However, temperatures are expected to jump into the 70s and even 80s as the week moves along. With warm temperatures in the springtime, that often leads to severe weather somewhere in Texas.
Several models indicated, Monday, an interesting weather pattern for this Thursday. Below is the frontal forecast valid for 6:00 a.m. Thursday morning, from the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center.
As indicated in the image above, there appears to be a dry line extending through the Big Country from a surface low, that also has a cold front extending just west of that dry line. Just to the north is another cold front pushing south into the Texas Panhandle.
For the Big Country, the exact timing and set up of things Thursday will be crucial.
If this setup holds true but shifts more to the east, the severe chances will likely decrease. If things are slow moving and shift towards the west, the severe chances will likely increase. As of Monday afternoon, we are on the western edge of severe potential.
There was already a chance of severe storm development for Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center has a Day 4 Convective Outlook for parts of the Big Country.
In the graph above, most of the Big Country has about a 15% chance of severe thunderstorms. That is due to the warm temperatures and moisture present in the area as the front approaches. That, plus the amount of vertical wind shear available, will be key for those storms to develop.
Given how far out Thursday is, this is interesting to see at this time. Stay tuned as the days get closer. We will have a better idea of what to expect with this system. That includes timing, severity, and areas affected.
Several Big Country counties are under a moderate wind advisory from 2:00 p.m. Monday through 7:00 a.m. Tuesday. Those counties include: Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Fisher, Haskell, Jones, Nolan, Runnels, Shackelford, Taylor, and Throckmorton.