ABILENE, Texas (KTAB/KRBC) – Winter weather is forecast to impact much of the Big Country beginning Tuesday. Here’s a breakdown of what to expect from BigCountryHomepage.com meteorologist Susana Harbert:

Monday: Enjoy the sunshine and temperatures near seasonal heading into this afternoon because heading into the overnight hours we are expecting an increase in cloud cover and pockets of rain out ahead of our next cold front Monday night.

Tuesday: Early Tuesday morning into midnight on Wednesday, a winter weather advisory will go into effect for our north and northwestern counties. Temperatures are expected to fall below the freezing point (32°), allowing for accumulation of snowfall to occur. Take extra precautions if you plan to travel along and north of I-20 during the morning and afternoon hours of Tuesday, increase stopping distance, give yourself plenty of time to get to your destination, make sure your tires are properly inflated and you have the necessary tools to help yourself in case of an emergency. The temperatures are expected to fluctuate between 34° and 38°, meaning that Tuesday’s temperatures won’t rise like normal and peak during the afternoon hours. Our high for Tuesday will occur at midnight with temperatures falling following the cold front.

MODEL:

The models have come more into an agreement on precipitation types and have increased the possibility of seeing a more significant amount of precipitation accumulation further out towards the northwest, hence the winter weather advisory. The most probable precipitation type being a wintry mix of rain/snow in Abilene between 7am and 9pm Tuesday, with intermittent showers/thunderstorms possible.

TIMELINE:

We are less than 24 hours out from our event, and with that being said there is still a small amount of disagreement in the models when it comes to how fast we transition to freezing. While models like the NAM and EURO are anticipating us to stay below 32° and transition quickly to from rain to snow, higher snowfall totals could occur. However, high resolution data shows us to reach freezing around early commute times (7am) and staying right near the freezing line until late afternoon. Regardless of how this pans out, here’s what we do know…

We know that a decent amount of rainfall will occur out ahead of this cold front with anywhere between 1″-1.5″ expected for Abilene with higher rain totals out near the Heartland where temperatures are expected to remain above freezing throughout the day, certainly making an impact on the severe drought that continues to plague the Big Country. I will lean towards the higher resolution model with an estimated 0.3″-0.6″ of snowfall for the Key City, with higher totals expected out towards the northwest.