An upper level ridge will stretch from our area all the way east through the Virginia region. This set-up will give us hot and dry conditions today. An upper level trough will dig to our west. This will tighten the surface pressure gradient. In turn it will be breezy at times.
For the weekend, an upper level short wave trough will pass us to our north. This disturbance may give us a few rain showers and thunderstorms. Due to this disturbance, a 20% chance for activity Saturday PM is appropriate. Models are indicating a little better chance for rain and thunderstorms on Sunday. Gusty winds will be seen during this time period as the surface pressure gradient tightens even more.
As we head into next week, strong upper level southwest flow will initiate over west central Texas as the upper level trough continues to dig across the western CONUS. Elevated moisture levels will be seen as a breezy south southeast surface flow will persist. This along with possible upper level disturbances in the flow aloft will make showers and thunderstorms possible. At this time only issuing a 20% chance for activity Monday through Wednesday is appropriate.
Latest GFS models show the upper level flow of the atmosphere becoming more zonal by Thursday. This may allow a cold front to move into our area. This will give us a chance for rain and also cool temperatures down to around seasonable.
Today: Sunny. Breezy. Hot. High Temperature: 98° Winds: SSW 10-15 G20 MPH
Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Warm. Low Temperature: 74° Winds: S 5-15 MPH
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. 20% PM Rain and thunderstorms. High Temperature: 94° Winds: SSE 10-15 MPH
Sunday: Partly sunny. Gusty winds. 30% Rain and thunderstorms. High Temperature: 92° Winds: SSE 15-20 G25 MPH
Monday: Mostly cloudy. 20% Rain and thunderstorms. Breezy. High Temperature: 90° Winds: S 15-20 G25 MPH
Tuesday: Partly sunny. 10% Rain and thunderstorms. Breezy. High Temperature: 91° Winds: S 10-15 MPH
Wednesday: Partly sunny. 20% Rain and thunderstorms. High Temperature: 89° Winds: S 5-10 MPH
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Possible cold front. 30% Rain and thunderstorms. High Temperature: 83° Winds: NNE 5-10 MPH
Average High Temperature: 83°
Average Low Temperature: 60°
Sunrise: 7:30 A.M.
Sunset: 7:29 P.M.
Meteorologist Zach Gilday