Thursday, March 2nd, 2023

Vocabulary:

Today is a day to know the difference between a WATCH and WARNING. A watch means be prepared; conditions are favorable to see severe weather. A warning means severe weather is currently happening or expected soon – take action!

Surface Level Synopsis:

We are anticipating a series of cold fronts – three by the time Saturday rolls around. This will prompt some severe weather along the dryline and cold front. This cold front will form a squall line, which bring damaging winds and large hail as the main concerns.

Fire concerns:

Warmer weather and dry conditions out ahead of the dry line will cause gusty winds. With most of the area seeing some kind of drought, strong thunderstorms producing lightning will cause a few concerns to spark wildfires, so make sure you do your part and think of your volunteer firefighters.

Storm Prediction Center:

The storm potential inside the Big Country ranges from marginal (1/5) to enhanced (3/5) across the region. Breaking down the hazards even further, the main threats will be large hail and damaging winds. However, an isolated spin up tornado along the squall line can not be ruled out, even for our eastern counties.

Active Advisories/Warnings:

As of right now a good portion of our viewing area is seeing some sort of alert. Make sure you stay weather aware through the day, as we could expect to see a severe thunderstorm watch being added to the list of ongoing alerts. Stay weather aware today!

SUMMARY:

FIRST SQUALL LINE OF THE MONTH, SECOND FOR THE YEAR.

TIMELINE 12PM (STORM INITIATION) – 6PM THURSDAY (CLEARING)

1) Winds, which will shift out of the southeast, will fuel moisture into our area out ahead of our next cold front. (Important for severe weather)

2) Once again a is in place (see circled image below), in order for storms to bubble up/pan out we will need sufficient daytime heating. I’m anticipating that clouds will clear up Thursday morning fueling energy (instability) out ahead of the storm. With enough heating we will likely break the cap, further increasing the odds for severe weather.

3) This squall-like cold front is not super impactful when it comes to temperature drops. It is however, efficient at creating strong winds. This will prompt some blowing dust into our area.

4) Storms are expected to initiate in our region of the Big Country by early afternoon, with the main concerns one again being winds, hail and lightning. However, an isolated spin up tornado can not be ruled out; especially for our eastern counties.