Ahead of the severe weather threat tonight, today will be a warm, muggy and windy day with highs in the mid and upper 80s, even some lower 90s off to the west. Most of this morning will remain cloudy before becoming partly sunny to mostly sunny by this evening.
There is an Enhanced Risk for severe weather across parts of the Big Country, including Abilene, for late tonight and into Saturday morning.
Isolated storms are expected to develop southwest of the Big Country by late this evening and into the overnight hours. As these storms move east into the Big Country, a tornado potential will exist with these isolated storms, along with a very large hail threat. However, as a cold front catches up with the overnight convection, we will see additional storm development along the front creating a line of storms that will move east across the region. The severe risk will then shift to become a more damaging wind threat, however large hail and isolated tornadoes will still be possible. These storms are expected to move through the central Big Country in the early morning hours on Saturday, and move into the eastern Big Country by the mid and late morning hours. Heavy rainfall will also be a concern, with isolated amounts of 1″-2″ of rain possible with stronger storms resulting in areas of flash flooding, especially through Saturday morning.
After 7:00 a.m. on Saturday, there is a Slight Risk for severe weather across the eastern half of the region as storms continue to exit the Big Country. A couple strong to severe storms will still be possible, capable of large hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall and an isolated tornado.
Once storms exit the Big Country by Saturday afternoon, the rest of the day will remain windy, but mostly sunny and warm. Drier and cooler air will move in overnight before warming back up and becoming more humid again by Sunday afternoon.
Another chance for severe weather returns Monday with the Storm Predcition Center highlighting much of the Big Country for an Enhanced Risk of severe storms into Monday night. The environment will be strongly supportive of severe storms. Discrete storms will be capable of all modes of severe weather, including tornadoes. If storms can stay isolated, strong tornadoes may be possible.
Make sure you stay weather aware tonight and next week!
Today: Weather Alert Day. 20% chance for thunderstorms late Friday night. Strong to severe storms possible. Cloudy morning becoming partly sunny. Windy. South winds around 15 to 25 mph. 30 mph wind gusts. Highs in the mid and upper 80s.
Tonight: Weather Alert Day. 70% chance for thunderstorms. Strong to severe storms likely. Cloudy. Windy. South winds around 15 to 25 mph. Lows in the mid 60s.
Saturday: Weather Alert Day. 60% chance for thunderstorms early Saturday morning. Strong to severe storms likely. Mostly sunny. Windy. Southwest winds around 15 to 25 mph. Highs in the mid 80s.
Sunday: Sunny. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid 80s.
Monday: 40% chance for thunderstorms. Strong to severe storms likely. Partly sunny. Windy. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs in the mid 80s.
Tuesday: 20% chance for showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny. Breezy. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the low 80s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs around 90°.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs in the upper 80s.
Average High: 85°
Average Low: 62°
Sunrise: 6:39 a.m.
Sunset: 8:31 p.m.
– Meteorologist Grant Tosterud